【聊了什么】
2月28日，美以联合对伊朗发起代号"史诗狂怒"的军事打击。第一波空袭直接命中德黑兰市中心，最高领袖哈梅内伊等伊朗最高领导层当场身亡。录制本期节目时，战事已进入第八天——油价飙升，中东各国陷入战火，伊朗政权仍在运转，战争走向可能远比特朗普预期的复杂。
与此同时，中期选举的第一枪在德州打响。James Talarico击败Jasmine Crockett，赢得民主党参议员初选提名。一个年轻、看上去更温和的白人州众议员，打败了哈里斯钦点、全国知名的进步派黑人女议员——战术上的差距，还是民主党更深层问题的信号？共和党这边，现任参议员康宁以微弱优势领先帕克斯顿，特朗普至今未明确背书。
第三件事：国土安全部长克里斯蒂·诺姆在3月5日被炒掉。直接导火索是她在国会听证会上把一笔2.2亿美元的广告合同甩锅给了特朗普。
本期节目录制于美国时间2026年3月7日晚间。
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【时间轴】
01:54 "史诗狂怒"行动背景
03:24 谈判破裂还是走过场？以色列如何将美国拖下水
05:00 四个战争目标的内部矛盾：薛定谔的伊朗核能力
07:12 格雷厄姆的幕后操纵：高尔夫球场上的游说
10:55 "任务完成"的历史幽灵：与伊拉克战争对比
21:25 伊朗政权的战略逻辑
34:39 地面部队困境：空袭无法实现战略目标
40:38 《战争权力决议》投票失败：国会能做什么？
45:43 战争对中期选举的冲击：滞胀风险与民意隐患
52:20 德州民主党初选：塔拉里科击败克罗克特
54:14 塔拉里科的底牌：基督教左派能否打开福音派市场
57:02 克罗克特为何失败
60:17 共和党初选：康宁险胜，特朗普为何迟迟不背书
66:10 克伦肖输掉众议员初选：99%的忠诚也不够用
75:07 导火索：2.2亿广告合同甩锅给特朗普
77:09 丑闻解剖：空壳公司与利益输送
79:34 诺姆转任特使：为何不能彻底踢出局
80:14 穆林接任DHS：特朗普爱上福克斯常客
【我们是谁】
美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。
我们的主播和嘉宾：
Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者
王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子
小华：媒体人
【 What We Talked About】
On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military strike on Iran under the codename "Operation Epic Fury." The first wave of airstrikes hit central Tehran directly, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and the rest of Iran's top leadership. By the time we recorded this episode, the conflict had entered its eighth day — oil prices were surging, the Middle East was engulfed in fighting, and the Iranian regime was still standing. The war may be far more complicated than Trump anticipated.
Meanwhile, the midterm election season opened in Texas. James Talarico defeated Jasmine Crockett to win the Democratic Senate primary nomination. A young, ostensibly moderate white state legislator beat a nationally prominent progressive Black congresswoman who had the backing of Kamala Harris — is this a tactical failure, or a signal of something deeper wrong with the Democratic Party? On the Republican side, incumbent Senator Cornyn edged out Paxton by a slim margin, and Trump has yet to commit to a clear endorsement.
Third: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was fired on March 5. The immediate trigger was her testimony before Congress, in which she tried to pin a $220 million ad contract on Trump.
This episode was recorded on the night of March 7, 2026 (U.S. time).
【Support Us】
If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:
Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/
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Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]
【Timeline】
01:54 Background on "Operation Epic Fury"
03:24 Failed negotiations or political theater? How Israel dragged the U.S. in
05:00 Four war objectives, one contradiction: Iran's Schrödinger's nuclear capability
07:12 Graham's behind-the-scenes maneuvering: lobbying on the golf course
10:55 The ghost of "Mission Accomplished": parallels to the Iraq War
21:25 Iran's strategic logic
34:39 The ground troops dilemma: airstrikes can't deliver strategic objectives
40:38 War Powers Resolution vote fails: what can Congress actually do?
45:43 The war's impact on midterms: stagflation risk and shifting public opinion
52:20 Texas Democratic Senate primary: Talarico defeats Crockett
54:14 Talarico's edge: can the Christian left break into the evangelical market?
57:02 Why Crockett lost
60:17 GOP primary: Cornyn edges out — why is Trump holding back his endorsement?
66:10 Dan Crenshaw loses his House primary: 99% loyalty isn't enough
75:07 The trigger: a $220M ad contract blamed on Trump
77:09 The scandal unpacked: shell companies and self-dealing
79:34 Noem reassigned as special envoy: why she can't be fully pushed out
80:14 Mullin takes over DHS: Trump's favorite Fox News regular
【Who We Are】
The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.
Our Hosts and Guests:
Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history
王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information
小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer
