【聊了什么】
在加州洛杉矶，一场大规模移民执法行动引爆了特朗普政府与州政府的激烈对抗，街头抗议随之而来，国民警卫队被联邦强行接管。与此同时，在中东，特朗普下令空袭伊朗核设施，将地区局势推向战争边缘，却又在短短几天内迅速达成停火。而在华盛顿，共和党人寄予厚望的“大而美法案”在参议院遭遇程序性障碍，内部矛盾重重。
这些行动将如何影响美国的内政、外交和即将到来的中期选举？
我们在本期节目中复盘特朗普政府这充满动荡的一个月，探讨了美伊冲突的来龙去脉与特朗普的政治算盘，分析了移民执法行动所引发的社会危机与宪政冲突，并解读了“大而美法案”在参议院推进的最新进展和幕后博弈。
播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-iran-immigration-big-beautiful-bill-transcript/
本期节目录制于6月23日。6月28日，参议院共和党经过超过三小时的激烈辩论后，以51-49的微弱优势通过了“大而美法案”的程序性投票，距离法案正式通过参议院又进一步。
【支持我们】
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合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]
【时间轴】
01:35 美伊冲突：从升级到迅速降温
03:25 特朗普的“闪电战”：美伊冲突中的政治得失
06:35 美伊冲突下的共和党内部分歧
10:17 总统的战争权力与宪法争议
13:40 民调的悖论：特朗普决策的考量
21:56 洛杉矶移民执法风暴
24:19 罕见之举：特朗普下令联邦化加州国民警卫队
35:02 移民政策的经济后果与政策反复
38:33 州长纽森的强硬应对与民主党的移民难题
47:28 “大而美法案”在参议院遇阻：揭秘“博德洗礼”程序
01:01:35 为何“大而美法案”不受欢迎却必须通过？
【我们是谁】
美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。
我们的主播和嘉宾：
王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子
小华：媒体人
主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。
【 What We Talked About】
In Los Angeles, California, a large-scale immigration enforcement operation by the Trump administration has ignited a fierce confrontation with the state government. Street protests erupted, and the National Guard was forcibly federalized. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, President Trump ordered airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, pushing the region to the brink of war, only to broker a swift ceasefire within days. And in Washington, the Republican's much-anticipated "One Big Beautiful Bill" has hit procedural roadblocks in the Senate, revealing deep internal divisions. How will these actions impact America's domestic policy, foreign affairs, and the upcoming midterm elections?
In this episode, we recap a turbulent month for the Trump administration. We explore the timeline and political calculus behind the U.S.-Iran conflict, analyze the social and constitutional crises sparked by the immigration enforcement actions, and break down the latest developments and behind-the-scenes maneuvering of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" in the Senate.
Podcast Transcript (Paid Members Only): https://theamericanroulette.com/trump-iran-immigration-big-beautiful-bill-transcript/
This episode was recorded on June 23. On June 28, after more than three hours of intense debate, Senate Republicans passed a procedural vote on the "One Big Beautiful Bill" with a narrow 51-49 majority, moving it one step closer to full Senate passage.
【Support Us】
If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:
Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/
Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette
Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]
【Timeline】
01:35 The U.S.-Iran Conflict: From Escalation to a Swift Ceasefire
03:25 Trump's "Blitz": Political Gains and Losses in the Iran Conflict
06:35 Republican Divisions in the Wake of the Iran Conflict
10:17 Presidential War Powers and Constitutional Debates
13:40 The Polls Paradox: The Real Considerations Behind Trump's Decisions
21:56 The Immigration Enforcement Storm in Los Angeles
24:19 A Rare Move: Trump Orders the Federalization of the California National Guard
35:02 Economic Fallout and Policy Reversals of Immigration Policies
38:33 Governor Newsom's Tough Stance and the Democrats' Immigration Dilemma
47:28 "One Big Beautiful Bill" Hits a Snag in the Senate: Unpacking the "Byrd Bath"
01:01:35 Why the "Big Beautiful Bill" Must Pass Despite Its Unpopularity
【Who We Are】
The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.
Our Hosts and Guests:
王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information
小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer
The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.
